A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during July 31, 2026–August 28, 2026, except those for the currencies participating in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II, which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the Online Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $95.74 a barrel in 2026 and $87.39 a barrel in 2027; that the three-month government bond yield for the United States will average 3.8 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027, that for the euro area will average 2.3 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027, and that for Japan will average 1.0 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027; and that the 10-year government bond yield for the United States will average 4.5 percent in 2026 and 4.6 percent in 2027, that for the euro area will average 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.5 percent in 2027, and that for Japan will average 2.6 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would, in any event, be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through September 30, 2026, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases. For the date of the last data update for each economy, please refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database. The following conventions are used throughout the WEO: • . . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable; • – between years or months (for example, 2025–26 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; and • / between years or months (for example, 2025/26) to indicate a fiscal or financial year. • “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. • “Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point). • Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Online Table F in the Online Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data. • For some countries, the figures for 2025 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please refer to Online Table G in the Online Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments for each country. What is new in this publication: • Nauru is now referred to as Naoero. • Composites for Net Debtor Economies, Net Debtor Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling, and Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) are no longer published in the Online Statistical Appendix Tables. In the tables and figures, the following conventions apply: • Tables and figures in this report that list their source as “IMF staff calculations” or “IMF staff estimates” draw on data from the WEO database. • When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. • Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.
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World Economic Outlook October 2026_Resilience under Strain, Urgent Choices
