As al Shabaab embarked on a sweeping offensive across
much of central Somalia in April 2025, diplomats in
Somalia’s seaside capital began mulling over a disconcerting
hypothetical. Would the fall of Mogadishu resemble more
the Taliban conquest of Kabul or Hay’at Tahrir al Shams’
domination of Damascus? Al Shabaab had seized a succession
of strategic towns from the Somali National Army with
little apparent difficulty. By July, the militants had largely
encircled the capital, advancing to less than 50 kilometers
from Mogadishu and setting up checkpoints on its outskirts.
Many foreign embassies in the city withdrew nonessential
staff to neighboring Kenya. Then, inexplicably, the advance
paused, leaving Somalia’s beleaguered federal government
to claim victory while less sanguine observers wondered
when the offensive might resume.
Somalia is embroiled in a deepening crisis involving an ascendant
jihadist insurgency, a faltering peace support operation, domestic
political polarization, and regional geopolitical competition. The
federal government’s de facto sphere of control is confined to
Mogadishu and a few satellite towns: essentially a metropolis
with a diplomatic corps and a demoralized, ineffectual army.
Absent a dramatic change in direction, likely near-term scenarios
include collapse of the federal government and an al Shabaab
takeover of the national capital, with profound consequences
for regional stability and security.
An insurgency waged by Harakaat al Shabaab al-Mujaahidiin
(al Shabaab), an al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist organization, has
been raging for nearly two decades.
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